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There then follows the Middle Neolithic sequence, covering much of the fifth millennium cal BC, from the Hinkelstein, Grossgartach, Planig-Friedberg and Rössen phases, on to the Bischheim, Bruebach-Oberbergen and Maps of the upper Rhine valley and surrounding regions, showing the maximum spatial extent of different styles of Early and Middle Neolithic ceramics (related pottery groups are shown only where undisputed contact finds demonstrate at least partial contemporaneity): a LBK, b Hinkelstein, c Grossgartach, Planig-Friedberg and Rössen, d Bischeim, e Bruebach-Oberbergen and f BORS (NMB: Néolithique moyen Bourguignon)Up till now, the absolute dating of these successive cultural phases in Lower Alsace and, more widely, across the upper Rhine valley as a whole, has been based on a small number of radiocarbon dates.Moreover, a number of them, in particular those from the end of fifth millennium, were only indirectly fixed in time, through comparison with the better-dated sequences in neighbouring regions such as the Alpine foreland.

So from the outset, approaching the diversity of human life and culture, we can identify major issues in understanding the pace and tempo of change and major questions about the potential for continuity and discontinuity.

On the basis of modelling of existing dates for other parts of the Rhineland, this appears to be a wider phenomenon, and possible explanations are discussed; full reoccupation of the landscape is only seen in the Grossgartach phase.

Radical shifts are also proposed at the end of the Middle Neolithic.

Applying a Bayesian methodological approach to an archaeological chronology, we examine here a sequence where the default position has been to assume both a more or less regular pace of turnover and continuity.

To explore these issues in greater depth, within the context of a dating and formal modelling project on the Neolithic of Europe (see ‘Acknowledgements’), the Early and Middle Neolithic sequence of the southern part of the upper Rhine valley was chosen as a case study (Fig. The region under study lies on the west side of the upper Rhine, in Lower Alsace (in France), approximately some 55 km from south to north and some 25 km from river to flanking uplands of the Vosges.

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One aspect which the chronological charts of archaeology are good at is tracking regional variation over the long term but, given the lack of precision and difficulties in dating many of the existing schemes, currently this variation is usually only visible at rather coarse scales of resolution.